Theory of Probability and Mathematical Statistics
On Synchronized Fleming-Viot Particle Systems
F. Cerou, A. Guyader, M. Rousset
Link
Abstract: This article presents a variant of Fleming--Viot particle systems, which are a standard way to approximate the law of a Markov process with killing as well as related quantities. Classical Fleming--Viot particle systems proceed by simulating $N$ trajectories, or particles, according to the dynamics of the underlying process, until one of them is killed. At this killing time, the particle is instantaneously branched on one of the $(N-1)$ other ones, and so on until a fixed and finite final time $T$. In our variant, we propose to wait until $K$ particles are killed and then rebranch them independently on the $(N-K)$ alive ones. Specifically, we focus our attention on the large population limit and the regime where $K/N$ has a given limit when $N$ goes to infinity. In this context, we establish consistency and asymptotic normality results. The variant we propose is motivated by applications in rare event estimation problems through its connection with Adaptive Multilevel Splitting and Subset Simulation.
Keywords: Sequential Monte Carlo, interacting particle systems, process with killing
Bibliography: 1. S.K. Au and J.L. Beck, Estimation of small failure probabilities in high dimensions by subset simulation, Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics 16 (2001), no. 4, 263-277.
2. , Subset simulation and its application to seismic risk based on dynamic analysis, Journal of Engineering Mechanics 129 (2003), no. 8, 901-917.
3. M. Bieniek, K. Burdzy, and S. Finch, Non-extinction of a Fleming-Viot particle model, Probab. Theory Related Fields 153 (2012), no. 1-2, 293-332.
4. C.-E. Brehier and T. Lelievre, On a new class of score functions to estimate tail probabilities of some stochastic processes with adaptive multilevel splitting, Chaos 29 (2019), no. 3, 033126, 13. MR 3924366.
5. K. Burdzy, R. Holyst, D. Ingerman, and P. March, Configurational transition in a Fleming-Viot-type model and probabilistic interpretation of Laplacian eigenfunctions, Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and General 29 (1996), no. 11, 2633.
6. F. Cerou, P. Del Moral, T. Furon, and A. Guyader, Sequential Monte Carlo for Rare Event Estimation, Stat. Comput. 22 (2012), no. 3, 795-808. MR 2909622.
7. F. Cerou, B. Delyon, A. Guyader, and M. Rousset, A Central Limit Theorem for Fleming-Viot Particle Systems with Soft Killing, arXiv preprint arXiv:1611.00515 (2016).
8. F. Cerou, B. Delyon, A. Guyader, and M. Rousset, On the Asymptotic Normality of Adaptive Multilevel Splitting, SIAM/ASA J. Uncertain. Quantif. 7 (2019), no. 1, 1-30. MR 3895126.
9. , A central limit theorem for Fleming-Viot particle systems, Ann. Inst. Henri Poincare Probab. Stat. 56 (2020), no. 1, 637-666. MR 4059003
10. F. Cerou, T. Furon, and A. Guyader, Experimental assessment of the reliability for watermarking and fingerprinting schemes, EURASIP J. Inf. Secur. 2008 (2008), 6:1-6:12.
11. F. Cerou and A. Guyader, Adaptive Multilevel Splitting for Rare Event Analysis, Stoch. Anal. Appl. 25 (2007), no. 2, 417-443. MR 2303095 (2008k:60049).
12. F. Cerou and A. Guyader, Fluctuation Analysis of Adaptive Multilevel Splitting, Ann. Appl. Probab. 26 (2016), no. 6, 3319-3380. MR 3582805.
13. F. Cerou, A. Guyader, T. Lelievre, and D. Pommier, A Multiple Replica Approach to Simulate Reactive Trajectories, The Journal of Chemical Physics 134 (2011), no. 5, 054108.
14. F. Cerou, A. Guyader, and M. Rousset, Adaptive Multilevel Splitting: Historical Perspective and Recent Results, Chaos 29 (2019), no. 4, 043108, 12. MR 3937660.
15. P. Del Moral, Feynman-Kac formulae, genealogical and interacting particle systems with applications, Springer-Verlag, New York, 2004. MR 2044973 (2005f:60003).
16. , Mean field simulation for Monte Carlo integration, CRC Press, 2013.
17. S.N. Ethier and T.G. Kurtz, Markov processes, John Wiley&Sons, Inc., New York, 1986. MR 838085.
18. I. Grigorescu and M. Kang, Hydrodynamic limit for a Fleming-Viot type system, Stochastic Process. Appl. 110 (2004), no. 1, 111-143.
19. , Immortal particle for a catalytic branching process, Probab. Theory Related Fields 153 (2012), no. 1-2, 333-361. MR 2925577.
20. A. Guyader, N. Hengartner, and E. Matzner-Lber, Simulation and estimation of extreme quantiles and extreme probabilities, Applied Mathematics and Optimization 64 (2011), 171-196.
21. J. Jacod and A.N. Shiryaev, Limit theorems for stochastic processes, second ed., vol. 288, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2003.
22. T. Lestang, F. Ragone, C.-E. Brehier, C. Herbert, and F. Bouchet, Computing return times or return periods with rare event algorithms, Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment 2018 (2018), no. 4, 043213.
23. J.-U. Lobus, A stationary Fleming-Viot type Brownian particle system, Math. Z. 263 (2009), no. 3, 541-581.
24. L.J.S. Lopes, C.G. Mayne, C. Chipot, and T. Lelievre, Adaptive Multilevel Splitting Method: Isomerization of the alanine dipeptide, arXiv preprint arXiv:1707.00950 (2017).
25. P.E. Protter, Stochastic integration and dierential equations, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2005.
26. I. Teo, C.G. Mayne, K. Schulten, and T. Lelievre, Adaptive multilevel splitting method for molecular dynamics calculation of benzamidine-trypsin dissociation time, Journal of chemical theory and computation 12 (2016), no. 6, 2983-2989.
27. D. Villemonais, General approximation method for the distribution of Markov processes conditioned not to be killed, ESAIM Probab. Stat. 18 (2014), 441-467. MR 3333998